- Diabetes Reversal Network Newsletter
- Posts
- #3 It's Simple - Don't Complicate It!
#3 It's Simple - Don't Complicate It!
What really moves the needle?
Andrew Scott
July 03, 2025
This is Becoming a Habit.
Five good choices - only one wrong one.
Welcome back.
This issue may upset you - we’ll see why in a few minutes. If it does, I ask you to try doing the impossible: try setting aside any reflexive rejection (“That’s rubbish!”, “That cannot be true!”, “What an idiot!”) and give the ideas below some serious thought. My promise is that, if you do, you’ll be glad.
I will show you why reversing diabetes is not complicated and why you should avoid making it complicated. And I’ll introduce the central physiological state that drives type-2 diabetes that you might not have heard of - and how to reverse it. We’ll look at how to interpret your tracking data and know you’re making progress. Then we’ll talk about an important psychological perspective that helped me and that I think will help you, too.
Just before we start. If you know people struggling with diabetes, who could benefit from this newsletter, please share it with them. You might change - and extend - their life. Or, why not review the newsletter on social media? Here is the copy-paste-able URL for the homepage: https://andrews-newsletter-eb86de.beehiiv.com/
I would be very grateful.
Let’s dig in.
(As usual, this is not medical advice - read the disclaimer at the very bottom).
What Matters Most for Diabetes Reversal?
A 2025 Lancet meta‑analysis of 22 randomised controlled trials (> 12 000 participants) showed that one factor stands out above all others: weight loss.
Each 1 % body‑weight reduction raises complete‑remission odds by ≈ 2 % and partial‑remission odds by ≈ 3 %.
So, if you lose about 20% of your bodyweight by dieting, that translates into about a 40% chance that you will fully reverse your diabetes and a 60% chance that you will get it down into at least the prediabetes stage.
Here is my version of the results diagram from the study:
One crucial insight from this study is that age, sex, diabetes duration, HbA1c, medication use, and diet type all lost statistical significance once weight‑change was included. Translation: if your weight trend is down, reversal probability is up - for everyone.
This finding reframes the entire discussion. It means reversal isn't reserved for recent diagnoses or those not on medication. It’s not about following a specific diet. All that matters to your biology is that you lose enough of the right kind of fat.
The data from other studies show that specific internal changes - clearing out visceral and ectopic fat - are what unlock remission. And, short of advanced scanning, the best available proxy for those internal changes is weight loss on the bathroom scale.
The study’s authors put it clearly:
"The success of any intervention depends on the degree of weight loss achieved... The type of intervention - diet, medication, or surgery - is secondary to the magnitude of the weight change.”
If your method achieves that weight loss, you are on the right path. It really is that simple.
Here are some objections I’m anticipating:
But carbohydrates all turn into blood glucose!
But I’m slim and I still have type-2 diabetes! Checkmate!
But type-2 diabetes is just carbohydrate intolerance!
But what about supplements?! I read a study where …….
But I lost some weight and I am still diabetic!
But I read that animal protein is the real driver!
But someone I respect said the problem is really just [insert hypothesis]!
This is exactly the reason I said in issue #2 that proper baselining and tracking are the closest thing you will find to magic in diabetes reversal. Why? Because it takes belief out of the equation. You do not need to believe me or the results of any (or every) study. You can make a change and see the result.
I remember believing in the marrow of my bones that diabetes and obesity were the result of eating too much carbohydrate. It made so much sense, it could not be wrong. Then I tried an experiment with a high-carbohydrate low-fat diet. I tripled my usual carbohydrate intake and my fasting blood glucose started to fall in a few days. When I told my family and diet-savvy friends, they just denied it.
It didn’t happen because it couldn’t have happened.
But it did.
Please don’t misunderstand me: I’m not endorsing a low-fat diet for diabetes. There are people who do so, and they have a laundry list of reasons why this is the best way. It’s not. There isn’t a best way. That’s the hard pill to swallow.
That’s why I said in the introduction that this issue might upset you. I’m claiming that most of what we hear about diabetes reversal is either wrong or wildly overstated. I’m also putting a pretty big task on your shoulders - losing weight is famously difficult.
Don’t worry. There is a lot more to know that will minimise the difficulty and maximise your results. I’ve got you covered in upcoming issues. I spent 35 years trying to lose weight every conceivable way before finally succeeding. I’ll show you how to make it happen - in a way that aligns directly with the biology of diabetes reversal.
Making Sense of Your Numbers
This is what I expect your insulin sensitivity to do. Sucking → Not Sucking.
This table shows markers that help track how your body is responding. Don’t fixate on single numbers but look at trends over time.
Marker | Final Target Range | What it Tells You |
|---|---|---|
Morning Weight | About 1 kg/2 lbs per week is great progress. Half that if you are slimmer. | Strong sign you’re losing the harmful fat (usually tracks with bodyweight) |
Fasting Glucose | Lower is better. 4.5–6.0 mmol/L (81–108 mg/dL) | How well insulin is managing blood sugar after an overnight fast |
Fasting Insulin | Lower is better. < 10 µIU/mL is good < 6 µIU/mL is excellent | How much insulin your body needs to keep glucose stable in the fasted state. |
HOMA‑IR | Lower is better. < 1.5 is excellent ~ 1.9 IR is rising > 2.5 Concerning | Accurate composite measure of insulin resistance. |
HbA1c | < 5.7 % (39 mmol/mol) = healthy 5.7 – 6.4 % = prediabetic; ≥ 6.5 % (48+) = diabetic | Your average blood sugar over the past 2–3 months |
Insulin resistance is one of the two underlying physiological problems in type-2 diabetes, and HOMA-IR is a reliable indicator of your current level. Any changes that lower it are taking you in the right direction.
Diagnosis of pre-diabetes and full type-2 diabetes, as well as reversal, is usually based on your longterm blood glucose measurement - HbA1c. Any decrease towards optimal is a success.
How to read your data
Look for patterns and trends. If your weight is dropping but your morning blood glucose is flat, give it time. If this continues for more than 3 weeks, take a step back and look again at your diet and lifestyle. Accept that changes can come slowly.
A few strange readings is no reason to panic - they are normal and expected. Bad sleep, tough workouts, stress, hormones, hydration, the weather, and simple measurement error can throw off a reading. Use 7-day averages. The bigger picture matters more than any single point.
These markers often improve in a sequence: weight falls first, then insulin, then fasting glucose, then HbA1c. So don’t worry if some results lag - that’s normal.